The efficient market hypothesis says that you can’t pick out which stocks are undervalued versus which are overvalued. Likewise, I claim that you can’t pick out which restaurants are underpriced versus which restaurants are overpriced.
Think you’ve found a great company, so that their stock will outperform on a risk-adjusted basis? Nope, someone [...]
Most people are probably somewhat overconfident. Most people – myself surely included – probably typically overestimate their own talents, and they (we) are overly confident in the precision of their estimates, underestimating uncertainty.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) was famously defined by Fama (1991) as “the simple statement that security prices fully reflect all available information.”
That is, you can’t open the Wall Street Journal, read a news article from this morning about Google’s great earnings numbers that were just released, and make money by buying Google [...]
The future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is in the news with a speech by the President last week outlining his proposed reforms for the pair of housing finance giants.
What role should the government play in the housing market in the aftermath of the second collapse of the American housing finance sector in [...]
This week, Senators John McCain, Elizabeth Warren, Maria Cantwell, and Angus King introduced legislation to essentially reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which was repealed in 1999. It would force financial institutions to be either pure commercial banks or pure investment banks.
Glass-Steagall was wrong and indeed harmful the first time around, and it is [...]
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- The "Efficient Restaurant Hypothesis": a mental model for finance (and food)
- Behavioral biases don’t affect stock prices
- Yes, markets are efficient – *and* yes, stock prices are predictable
- NGDP targeting and the Friedman Rule