From the monthly archives: August 2017
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Most people are probably somewhat overconfident. Most people – myself surely included – probably typically overestimate their own talents, and they (we) are overly confident in the precision of their estimates, underestimating uncertainty.
- NGDP futures via blockchain: Market monetarism meets cryptocurrency (And: how to set up a prediction market on Augur)
- The "Efficient Restaurant Hypothesis": a mental model for finance (and food)
- Behavioral biases don’t affect stock prices
- Yes, markets are efficient – *and* yes, stock prices are predictable
- NGDP targeting and the Friedman Rule