From Matt Rognlie, an interesting point:
"A few years ago, I read an aside in Stiglitz’s Nobel autobiography that really shook me:
Economists spend enormous energy providing refined testing to their models. Economists often seem to forget that some of the most important theories in physics are either verified or refuted by a single observation, or a limited number of observations (e.g. Einstein’s theory of relativity, or the theory of black holes).
I really think that this is true: we often do very complicated, nontransparent estimation and testing of models, when in reality one or two carefully selected stylized facts could be much more decisive."
That from here, a debate between Rognlie and Miles Kimball on sticky prices and wages.
- NGDP futures via blockchain: Market monetarism meets cryptocurrency (And: how to set up a prediction market on Augur)
- The "Efficient Restaurant Hypothesis": a mental model for finance (and food)
- Behavioral biases don’t affect stock prices
- Yes, markets are efficient – *and* yes, stock prices are predictable
- NGDP targeting and the Friedman Rule